How to win on totals in football - that is, betting on the number of goals in a match? What key factors and statistical parameters should be taken into account when analyzing the probability of a TO or TO in a particular fight? Below is a summary of practical tips that will help you improve the efficiency of under/over bets and reveal the secrets of expert analysis of the line for total under and over in football.
#1. The previous match means little
The current form of the team - more precisely, the performance of several previous matches - is not as important as many people think. Arguing their bet on TB/TM, beginners start from the current trend and simply count on its continuation. This is a dead-end option, because in most cases, if a team breaks over 2.5 in several matches in a row, the odds on OT2.5 in its next match will be underestimated and unprofitable.
Yes, a team can have multiple scoring matches in a row, but that doesn't make it possible to give an accurate assessment of the true scoring potential of its next game. So football predictions tomorrow you need to look deeper and take into account the scoring exhaust over a longer distance (at least 20-30 games). Goal potential depends more on the specifics of the tournament and the playing style of the team, and much less on its recent results.
It is important to remember that when choosing a bet, most are guided by superficial information, that is, recent results. Following this pattern, it is impossible to play a plus. It is more profitable to catch the end of illogical and protracted series, but not thoughtlessly, and after a rigorous analysis of long-term trends and the actual potential of the match, it will turn out to be high or low.
#2. Home and away matches - heaven and earth
This is obvious, but not everyone divides the matches of a team into home and away matches. And in vain, because the specifics of games at one's own stadium and beyond are very different, and with it the probability of passing TB / TM. In any championship, there are teams that play very effectively at home, but systematically churn out low-level fights away (or vice versa). When analyzing how many goals will be scored in a particular match, it is critical to consider the influence of the territorial factor on the game of both teams.
#3. Passes, not goals
An average performance of 2.7 goals per game does not mean that a bet on over 2.5 will be profitable. Head count analysis is relevant when there is a large sample or low variance. In football, as practice shows, a couple of out-of-the-ordinary fights can significantly distort the overall picture and significantly overestimate or underestimate the average.
To put it simply, a team can be a grassroots team but go 4-4 twice in a season without making their average performance look extremely low. That's why it's better to count not the average performance, but the passes of TB or TM. The percentage of high and low matches allows you to assess the scoring potential of the team more accurately than the dry numbers of goals scored and conceded.
#4. Down with the exotic
Do not reinvent the wheel and hunt for extremely high totals (for example, over 4.5). Likewise, there is no need to chase those events that only seem to be reinforced concrete (like TB1.5 in the match of the mounted teams), but in practice they regularly fail. The standard line in football is 2.5 balls, on which it is advisable to focus, regardless of the analyzed championship or tournament.
Of course, experienced players manage to find valuable odds in the line for other totals, but at first it is better to focus on the classic ones. The average goal yield of almost all championships fluctuates between 2 and 3 goals per game, and only a slight predominance of plus bets over minus bets is enough to make a profit from bets on Over/Under (at odds of 2 and higher, of course).